Nebojša Nikolić, PhD: Monte Carlo Modeling of Military Queuing Systems – Challenge of the Initial Transcience

Different military processes, systems and situations, usually described as mass service systems, are complex, have a limited time of engagement, and a high level of load (even overload). The theory of mass service has some disadvantages when trying to model complex systems. Focusing on the stationary regime as the internal work frame, this theory does not offer practical and useful solutions for the transitional working regime or the logical and possible case of overload. Monte Carlo Modeling has been recognized as an efficient method for considering complex systems, but its main problem is producing and monitoring accurate simulation results. Within the simulations of mass service systems there is an additional, specific problem known as the problem of initialization (also described as the start-up, transient, non-stationary or warm-up problem). The limits of the mass service theory have been identified while looking for the credible mass service system in the military field. Likewise, the problems within the Monte Carlo simulation of the mass service system have been recognized. Modeling the transitional working regime was the central source of those problems and limits. This article proposes independent repetitions of the simulation, using the automatic method, along with collecting statistics of unintentional processes as an effective solution for the mass service systems’ simulation which functions under realistic work conditions.